Flights for next summer are already on sale – here’s why you shouldn’t book yet

The reassurance of having your holiday sorted a year in advance may be tempting, but there are many good reasons to bide your time

You’ve probably only just got back from your summer holiday (assuming you were lucky enough to have one) – so EasyJet’s announcement this week that it had just released more than 17.8 million seats on over 100,000 UK flights for summer 2025 probably seems a bit, well, pushy. 
In fact, EasyJet is the last of the big four no-frills airlines to open bookings this far ahead, and is offering the shortest lead times – until the end of September next year. With Ryanair and Wizz Air you can already book until late October 2025 (including the half-term holiday), while Jet2 is taking bookings right up until the end of March 2026. 
It’s not clear how many of us have the inclination and the ability to commit that far in advance, but several years ago tour operators cottoned onto a niche demand among some holidaymakers who yearn for long-term certainty. Since then, they have been launching their summer programmes more than a year in advance. 
Now airlines do it too, and it’s hardly surprising – it’s very good for their cash flow. While an operator only gets the initial deposit from customers who book so far ahead, for most airline tickets, you have to pay the full amount at the time of booking. 
But is it good for customers? Here are your questions answered.
Traditional airlines – especially those serving long haul routes – open their bookings on a rolling basis around 330 days or 11 months in advance. Sometimes it is a little longer – just a few days short of a year in the case of British Airways, for example. Advance bookings with no-frills airlines tend to be released seasonally, with timings varying and sometimes hard to predict. If you are a keen early booker, you can sign up for email alerts and be notified on release. 
If only we knew. If only, frankly, the airlines knew. Fares are set by computer algorithms designed to maximise the revenue on each flight by measuring and predicting demand and altering costs to stimulate, or cash in on, demand. But it is not a perfect science. 
As I pointed out a few weeks ago, in some cases the cost of this summer’s peak time flights dipped sharply for last-minute bookers, so that if you had booked a year in advance you would, in some cases, have paid hundreds of pounds more per return flight. In its publicity around the release, EasyJet tried to confirm the perception that early bookers get the best deals: “Customers can get a great deal by booking early with seats available from just £14.99.” 
But when I checked this week, some of its return fares for a peak summer 2025 flight from Gatwick to Mallorca were around the £430 mark (including hold baggage). And there is absolutely no certainty around whether they will rise or fall at various points over the next year. 
Ok, my rule of thumb guide is this. Generally speaking, fares are most likely to rise for a specific and limited set of departures – those on peak dates, at civilised times, from smaller regional airports, and to destinations served by relatively few flights. So, for this subset, book as early as you feel comfortable and try not to worry about whether you have timed it right. 
But don’t panic – flights are unlikely to sell out any time soon. There will be a rush in the traditional January booking season however, so you may want to check prices again in mid-December. If you can be flexible on when – and especially where – you plan to travel, then play a waiting game. There will always be bargains and opportunities nearer departure.
You can, but unless you buy a much more expensive, flexible ticket, changes will cost you. Ryanair, for example, charges from £45 per passenger (€45 in the eurozone) per one-way flight – that’s £90 if you change both legs of a return. That is likely to outweigh any savings you may have made by booking early, though of course, you can – and should – reduce risks by taking out insurance at the time of booking. Then you are at least covered for an enforced change of plan.
Airlines have a poor recent record for cancelling and changing flights – whether because of insufficient capacity at airports, hold-ups in delivering new planes, or simply bad planning. Hopefully, things will be more stable in 2025, but while booking early feels like it is giving you certainty, it is also making you more vulnerable to change.